Tensions between Mainland China and Taiwan have escalated since October 1st, 2021, when China observes its National Day to mark the birth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Coinciding with the 72nd anniversary celebrations, China flew over 100 fighter jets sorties into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, jangling nerves in Taiwan and setting off alarm around the world that it was prepping to take over the island nation by force. Stories were planted all over the world in Chinese controlled media that China will annex Taiwan by the year 2025, if not earlier.

Although largely unrecognised by other countries as such, self-ruled Taiwan sees itself as no less than an independent nation, and its leaders, including the fiercely pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen, have vowed to defend its sovereignty against the Chinese goal of “reunification”. Mainland China coaxes nations which had recognised Taiwan to derecognie Taiwan with muscle power, debt power and diplomatic power. The threats issued by China works in many cases and Taiwan is left non-supported by majority of the nations. Even it does not have a place among the 193 nations at the high table of UN. India wanted Taiwan to become member of the WHO, but it was not allowed to be part of even the health organisation.

But Taiwan is entirely dependent on the US for its defence against possible Chinese aggression, and that is why every spike in military tensions between China and Taiwan injects more hostility in the already strained relationship between Washington and Beijing.

Taiwan, earlier known as Formosa, a tiny island off the east coast of China, just 130 kilometre away from the Chinese boundary, is where Chinese Republic of the Kuomintang government retreated after the 1949 victory of the communists — and it has since continued as the Republic of China (RoC). The island is located in the East China Sea, to the northeast of Hong Kong, north of the Philippines and south of South Korea, and southwest of Japan. What happens in and around Taiwan is of deep concern to all of East Asian nations. It is a highly developed nation, especially in the field of semiconductor chips used in the computer industry and car manufacturing.

Taiwan observes October 10: “double 10” as its national day; it was on this day in the year 1911 that sections of the Manchu army rose in rebellion, leading ultimately to the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty and the end of 4,000 years of the monarchy. The RoC was declared on December 29th, 1911, and it found its feet in the 1920s under the leadership of Dr Sun Yatzsen, founder of the Kuomintang (KMT) Party. Sun was succeeded by General Chiang Kai-shek, whose actions against the Chinese communists, who were part of an alliance with the KMT, triggered the civil war that ended in victory for the communists and retreat of Chiang and the KMT to Taiwan.

Since its founding in 1949, the PRC has believed that Taiwan must be reunified with the mainland, while the RoC has held out as an “independent” country. The RoC became the non-communist frontier against China during the Cold War, and was the only ‘China’ recognised at the UN until 1971. That was when the US inaugurated ties with China through the secret diplomacy of Henry Kissinger, national security adviser to President Richard Nixon at that time and Pakistan played to the gallery, when from Sargodha airbase, Henry Kissinger flew to China to prepare the base for China – US political ties and the game plan was to bring China in the new world over.

The US backs Taiwan’s independence, maintains ties with Taipei, and sells weapons to it, but officially subscribes to PRC’s “One China Policy”, which means there is only one legitimate Chinese Government. Just 15, mostly very small, countries recognise Taiwan.

In 1954-55, and in 1958, the PRC bombed the Jinmen, Mazu, and Dachen islands under Taiwan’s control, drawing in the US. Congress passed the Formosa Resolution authorising President Dwight D Eisenhower to defend RoC territory.

In 1955, Premier Zhou En-lai declared at the Bandung Conference that he wanted negotiations with the US. But as civil war broke out in Lebanon in 1958, China resumed the bombing, provoking the US to supply Taiwanese outposts on the islands. The PRC and ROC then arrived at an arrangement to bomb each other’s garrison on alternate days: this continued until 1971. (‘Milestones in the History of US Foreign Relations’, history.state.gov).

The most serious encounter was in 1995-96, when China began testing missiles in the seas around Taiwan, triggering the biggest US mobilisation in the region since the Vietnam War. The tests led to the re-election in 1996 of President Lee Teng-hui, seen by the Chinese as a pro-independence leader.

In 1975, Chiang Kai-shek died, martial law was lifted, and Taiwan got its first democratic reform. Starting from the 1990s, and despite the missile crisis, relations between the PRC and ROC improved, and trade ties were established. As the British prepared to exit Hong Kong in 1999, the “One China, Two Systems” solution was offered to Taiwan as well, but it was rejected by the Taiwanese people.

In 2000, Taiwan got its first non-KMT government, when the Taiwanese Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the Presidency. In 2004, China started drafting an anti-secession law aimed at Taiwan; trade and connectivity, however, continued to improve.

Today, the two big players in Taiwan’s politics are the DPP and KMT, broadly the parties of the island’s Hakka inhabitants and the minority mainland Chinese respectively. The 2016 election of the President Tsai marked the onset of a sharp pro-independence phase in Taiwan, and the current tensions with China coincided with her re-election in 2020 with a thumping majority.

Taiwan now has massive economic interests, including investments in China, and pro-independence sections worry that this might come in the way of their goals. Inversely, the pro-reunification sections of the polity, as well as China, hope that economic dependence and increasing people-to-people contacts will wear out the pro-independence lobbies completely. Many analysts feel, large portion of the earnings of the CPP members get invested in Taiwan, which invests in building IT products. Some others feel that this tension is deliberately created and escalated by the big arms lobby, and whenever China bulldozes Taiwan, US arms lobby get benefitted enormously.

Last year, amid worsening US-China relations over Covid and trade, the State Department sent its highest ranking delegation yet to Taipei. During the visit, the Chinese conducted a military exercise in the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from mainland China. In October 2020, President Xi Jinping asked the PLA to prepare for war, triggering alarm in Taiwan, which read it as an open threat.

Early in the Biden Administration, which has declared “rock solid” commitment to Taiwan, Taipei raised an alert about an incursion by Chinese warplanes. In April, Taiwan reported Chinese jets in its air defence zone. In July, Xi warned that he would “smash” any Taiwanese move towards independence. At the beginning of this month, as the Chinese jets came back, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told Parliament that China already has the capacity to invade Taiwan, and but would be able to “bring the cost and attrition to its lowest” by 2025.

In a speech on October 10, Xi appeared to allay fears of a forcible takeover, and spoke about “peaceful reunification”. But he underlined that “the historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland… will definitely be fulfilled.” That same day, the Taiwanese President said that while her government would not “act rashly”, the Taiwanese people would not “bow to pressure” either.

As tensions rise, the world is watching the US, whose status as the world’s pre-eminent power has been dented by the messy exit from Afghanistan. It has also proved itself as a weak ally. In East and Southeast Asia, several countries including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, which are sheltered under the protective umbrella of the US, for which these countries pay Uncle Sam an hefty tribute money, are reading the turn of events. President Joe Biden has so far walked a thin line between pledging support for Taiwan, and keeping the lid on tensions with Beijing. After speaking with Xi earlier this month, he said they had agreed to abide by the “Taiwan Agreement”, under which US support for the “One China Policy” is premised on Beijing not invading Taiwan.

Taiwan should be called a ‘country’, a senior French senator said on Friday, October 8, during a visit to Taipei, doubling down on earlier comments that have angered Beijing, which views the island as one of its provinces, not a country. Meeting President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday October 7, former French defence minister Alain Richard said Taiwan`s representative office in Paris was doing “a very good job in representing your country”. In Beijing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said to call Taiwan a country was a “flagrant violation of the universal consensus of the international community, including France.” The significance of this visit was to convey to Taiwan that we can also sell arms.

Then, on Monday, China’s military revealed that they had been carrying out beach landing drills directly across the water from Taiwan. This came after it was revealed that the United States in fact has ‘Special Forces’, on the ground in Taiwan helping to train their military.

Taiwan`s name is a tricky issue. Formally called the Republic of China, it is not recognised by most of the world, which has diplomatic ties with Beijing. Its de facto embassies generally use the name “Taipei” to describe the island, to ensure host nations do not upset China.

The AUKUS pact among the US, UK, and Australia, under which Australia will be supplied with nuclear submarines, has imparted a new dimension to the security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan has welcomed the pact, while China has denounced it as seriously undermining regional peace. All contact between the USSR and the Republic of China defined by the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance of 1945 was broken off. The announcement of the breakup was made on October 3, 1949 after the Soviet Union became the first country to recognise the PRC in October.

On the question of Germany’s reported plan to send a warship to the South China Sea later this year, Prinz said such an action will be carried out by his country for the first time in the East Asian region.

“It’s a sign, it’s a symbol,” he said. “About the South China Sea, the position of the government is very clear to everybody. For us, that’s international waters and we support freedom of navigation.” With India facing its own problems with China at the LAC, there have been suggestions that it should review its One China Policy — it has in any case long stopped reiterating this officially — and use not just the Tibet card, but also develop more robust relations with Taiwan to send a message to Beijing.

India and Taiwan currently maintain “trade and cultural exchange” offices in each other’s capitals. In May 2020, the swearing-in of Tsai was attended virtually by BJP MPs Meenakshi Lekhi (now MoS External Affairs) and Rahul Kaswan. In 2016, New Delhi had dropped plans to send two representatives for Tsai’s first inaugural at the last minute.

Bloomberg has reported that talks with Taipei are ongoing to bring a $7.5-billion semiconductor or chip manufacturing plant to India. Chips are used in a range of devices from computers to 5G smartphones, to electric cars and medical equipment. The deal was reported on the heels of a summit of the Quad, a grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia seeking to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. One of the topics discussed at the meeting was the need to build a “safe supply chain for semiconductors”.

With the Chinese economy in complete disarray with possibility of defaults from Evergrande & reality companies, excessive regulation of private Chinese technology companies leading to meltdown of One Trillion USD of market capitalisation, Power Sector woes, a near percent growth forecast & fearing internal revolt from CCP & PLA, the Chinese Premier Xi Jingping in more likelihood will adopt hostile, hawkish posture to prepare for limited conflict in Himalayas & South China Sea.

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