2019 has commenced with a substantial number of MPs in Parliament, probably a majority, now in open rebellion against the instruction of the 2016 Referendum for the UK to simply leave the EU.
Motion after motion has been passed in Parliament with the intent of ensuring that what the media pejoratively calls a “No Deal” aka a WTO tariff orderly Brexit cannot happen.
As Jeremy Corbyn puts it having won the first of these votes by 303 to 296….
“This vote is an important step to prevent a no-deal Brexit. It shows that there is no majority in Parliament, the Cabinet or the country for crashing out of the EU without an agreement”
This is clearly not correct. There may indeed not be a majority in Parliament and the Cabinet but there was a majority in the country to simply leave the EU and Corbyn, like so many others in the Palace of Westminster, is is opposition to this.
Herein lies the constitutional crisis that now moves into plain sight.
For two and a half years, Leave voters have endured the establishment political class along with the establishment media lecture them that;
All specious garbage. All deceits. All part of the plan to wear the Leave vote down. All part of the pro EU political establishment determination to stop us leaving.
The simple truth is that we never voted for ‘a deal’ It is a matter of fact that “a deal” was not on the 2016 Ballot paper.
But it was the Remain Prime Minister Theresa May who has wasted all this time pursuing her elusive ‘deal’ with the EU gangsters in Brussels. It is obvious to anyone with a brain that the EU would never willingly agree to offering a favourable ‘deal’ to the UK since that would then open the flood gates to even more EU members states following the UK out the exit door. So it has been EU strategy to publicly humiliate the UK and offer ‘a deal’ that makes our country worse off than had it remained. This is in essence a constitutional punishment beating and worst of all Theresa May has colluded in it.
When May finally revealed her final ‘Deal’ in December, to universal contempt and uproar, she promptly then put off the ‘meaningful vote” on it. It was a “Brexit in name only”, giving the EU treaty power over our future and leaving us a damaged Vassal State. It stripped away all the advantages of Leaving and this seems clear to everyone BUT the Prime Minister who continues to tout this dead parrot as the “best choice available”.
The past four weeks have seen the Prime Minister and her minions pleading for further “assurances” from the EU to try and obviate the rebellion on her own benches. It is clear at this point that nothing of substance has been conceded and honeyed words are all that she has gained. These mean nothing and are unlikely to change Parliamentary arithmetic.
This all changes next week when the Prime Minister has assured us that her “deal’ will definitely return to the Commons and this time the “meaningful vote’ will go ahead. It seems very likely that she will lose, comprehensively.
Well, another vote has just gone through the House of Commons, engineered by Conservative MP and arch Remainer Dominic Grieve, that will require the PM to bring back her “Plan B” to the Commons for approval within 3 days in the event of the current deal being rejected.
This is when the crisis will happen. Does she bring back her defeated plan with a few further cosmetic changes? The liklihood is that this too will be defeated. That means that the ONLY legislated option becomes “No Deal” and it is would be on that basis that we will leave the EU on March 29th this year. But the majority in the Commons oppose this.
So we hurtle towards a constitutional crisis and there seems no way of stopping it. The last time this happened on this scale was in the 17th century. Oliver Cromwell stepped into the void and history records what happened. We face another such moment.