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The Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, is very new but also very fast growing. Just consider the latest polling;
As you can see, it currently tops the polling and all momentum seems to lie with it. Conversely, the Conservative Party is registering around half the support that the Brexit Party enjoys, and almost four times that which UKIP is attracting.
By any standard this is remarkable and if the polling trend is accurate then by the time the EU elections come around Farage’s Party will be sitting around +30% of the vote, a stunning achievement.
Having announced some fantastic candidates such as Annunziata Rees Mogg and John Longworth (the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce) Brexit Party is soaring in popularity. A deep connection with a large section of the UK electorate appears to be taking place.
Farage has pointed out that in terms of the policy on leaving the EU, there is no difference between the Brexit Party and UKIP but that in terms of quality of personnel there is a chasm. Farage seems to be choosing prospective candidates who have real depth to them, are squeaky clean, and carry no baggage.
By way of contrast, in the 2014 European Elections, the then Farage led UKIP topped the UK poll with 26.6% of the vote cast. This delivered 24 seats. It looks like Farage’s Brexit Party is going to even exceed THAT result in these elections.
In 2014 the Conservatives under David Cameron won 23% of the votes and 19 seats. Five years on, staggering under the ineptitude of Theresa May, support is almost HALF of what it was back then, and likely to recede even further. The consequence of this may be that the Conservatives get single digit numbers of MEPs elected, which is incredible given that it is the party of Government.
The Conservative Party is poised to suffer an immense humiliation next month. The chances are that it will also perform grievously in the local council elections held at the start of May. The Brexit Party is not standing in these, but UKIP looks well placed to benefit from the ongoing collapse of the Conservatives.
Given what the polls are saying, it seems odd that Theresa May would actually ALLOW these elections to take place. How could she survive as Leader if her Party is beaten into a very poor 3rd?
The only thing that can prevent this from happening is if Labour helps her get her Withdrawal Agreement over the line by May 22nd. But Labour’s poll rating in 2019 (22%) is only just slightly down than in 2014 (24%) so the scale of collapse is ALL on the Conservative side of the house. She has everything to lose, Corbyn has nothing to lose.
Former Conservative Leader Iain Duncan Smith went on national TV to plead with the Prime Minister NOT to hold these elections as it puts putative Conservative candidates (and the teams that are out on the ground campaigning for them) in an impossible position. She won’t listen to him. Her sole interest is to keep the UK mired in the EU unless Parliament agrees to accept her Treaty Deal which ..keeps us in the EU in all but name.
Her strategy is not just alienating core Conservative support, it is destroying it. The Conservative brand is now toxic.
Meanwhile, the Brexit Party is rising in the polls. In the event of a subsequent General Election, there has to be every prospect of the Conservative Party imploding and the Brexit Party entering Parliament as the standard bearer for what the people of the UK voted for in 2016.
Farage has stated that the aim of the Brexit Party is to change British politics.
Next month, we are likely to see record a massive step forward towards this end.